Petroleum pipeline
Decisions
about installations of pipelines in gas industry determine the
directions and course of billion rupees every year. The complexity of
decision can range from simple to complex but analytical. These
decisions determine cost of installation, operational optimization,
timing of increasing facility capacity and long term utilization of Pipeline.
The complicated decisions within a company can take months of
preparation. Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Ltd has an asset of 2.92 million
consumers connected through standard distribution piping network which
is connected to gas wells through transmission pipeline network. The
transmission system is equipped with pipelines, valve assemblies,
Cathodic Protection Stations and Compressor Stations while the
distribution network contains Town Border Stations (TBSs), District
regulatory Stations (DRSs) and Consumer meter stations connected through
pipelines.
The company has a broader pipeline network including 6,625
Kilometers of transmission pipelines and 51,911 kilometers of
distribution pipelines. The network has rapidly been growing for last
twenty years and yet expected to grow a lot.
Extensions
in the existing pipeline network or installation of a new pipeline
causes pipeline planner to keep his eyes on wrist with a calculator on
the table and the manpower diagram on the desktop. The pipelines
specification codes should be on the finger tips to go through a
progressive pilot project. Statistics and ASME pipeline code standards
are the wisdom bibles for the decision makers to evaluate uncertainty,
reduce risks and choose workable solutions. More involved cases require a
clearly figured sketch of decision alternatives that combines
information from multiple disciplines for which Decision tree is a
selectable option. A number of methods are available to help decision
makers evaluate decisions. The methods include net present value (NPV)
calculations, discounted cash flow analysis, Monte Carlo
simulations, Portfolio theory, preference theory etc which are good to
compute basic expected values but these strategies are of no weight for
graphical simulation of complex procedures and codes. Decision tree is a
good option to frame complex situations.
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